Crowding Index

How the Crowding Index works

The index compares a basket of AI-exposed inputs with similar markets that have less direct AI demand, using January 2024 as a baseline of 100. It measures relative price and availability pressure across the two baskets.

BaselineJan 2024 = 100
ComparisonMatched markets
OutputRelative pressure

Each component measures change from the baseline, subtracts its matched comparison and contributes to the basket result under the published weighting rules.

Observed components

What the individual measures show

These official producer price indexes are component inputs. Storage prices rose while the broader semiconductor index fell. The basket combines each exposed measure with its documented comparison.

Storage-device PPI65.056
+30.4% ยท Jan 2024 to Jun 2026
Transformer PPI365.306
+5.9% ยท Oct 2024 to Jun 2026
Semiconductor PPI29.695
โˆ’6.3% ยท Jan 2024 to Jun 2026

AI-exposed basket

Markets with direct AI demand

  • HBM / advanced-memory capacity
  • Enterprise storage devices
  • Power and distribution transformers
  • Switchgear and power-control equipment
  • Gas-turbine manufacturing slots
  • Electrician and mission-critical trade labor
  • Large-load electricity and grid capacity
  • Data-center corridor construction inputs

Control rules

Use a fair comparison or leave it blank

  • Same measurement family and release cadence
  • Similar input intensity before January 2024
  • Low direct AI exposure
  • Comparisons chosen before looking for a favorable result
  • Any comparison changes logged before recalculation
  • Unmatched series remain component indicators outside the matched score

Calculation standard

Six rules define the score

  1. 1
    Series coverage

    At least 80% of the exposed and comparison baskets have current observations.

  2. 2
    Expected direction

    Each series defines how greater scarcity moves the value.

  3. 3
    Comparison match

    Every scored series has a documented lower-AI-exposure comparison.

  4. 4
    Weighting

    Published results show equal-weight and sensitivity calculations.

  5. 5
    Data version

    Raw values, calculations and retrieval dates are available for download, including revisions.

  6. 6
    Independent check

    A reviewer outside the project can reproduce the result from the published file.

Open data

Download the baseline evidence

Each row includes the observation, unit, date, grade, evidence boundary and source URL.

Download CSV